～Dr. Pablo M. Pinto (University of Houston)～

Abstract:Representation of the interests of Congressional districts with heterogeneous trade policy preferences is missing from political economy models of trade protection. We develop a model that allows us to characterize the (unobserved) district-level demand for protection and show how these district level preferences may be aggregated into national tariffs. Moreover, in our model, export interests can become a force countering domestic protectionism. Using 2002 data from the U.S. mapped at the Congressional district level, we use the model’s predictions to estimate welfare weights implied by tariff and non-tariff measures. This supply-side explanation for trade policy reveals a pattern of winners and losers in Congressional districts, providing fresh insights, such as the recent diminished role of manufacturing exporters, into the current backlash against globalization.